Heat begin key homestand with visit from Clippers

Basketball Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and hope to gain some ground during a six-game homestand that starts with tonight's matchup versus the Los Angeles Clippers at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The Heat have won three in a row as the host and will also welcome Chicago, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Orlando and Charlotte to South Florida. They are currently tied with Charlotte for seventh in the Eastern Conference standings, just a half-game ahead of Chicago for the final playoff berth, and sport a 17-14 home record.

Miami, though, is coming off Tuesday's 83-78 loss to the Bobcats in which Dwyane Wade had 27 points and seven boards in losing fashion. Jermaine O'Neal added 19 points and five rebounds, while Michael Beasley finished with 11 points and nine boards for the Heat.

"We showed up for the fight," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said on NBA.com, "but we did not close the game well at all, certainly not offensively. We had too many empty possessions and gave them too many shots to take the lead."

The Heat were 20-0 when holding opponents to under 90 points and 17-0 when keeping opposing teams to less than 40 percent shooting from the field before last night's loss to the Bobcats.

Los Angeles hasn't scored more than 87 points in its last three games and is riding a four-game losing streak. It fell to 0-2 on a five-game road trip after Tuesday's 113-87 setback at Orlando.

Baron Davis led the Clippers with 16 points and nine assists off the bench, and Drew Gooden posted a double-double with 12 points and 14 rebounds for Los Angeles, which has dropped seven in a row away from Staples Center. Chris Kaman scored 12 points and Steve Blake netted 11 with five assists in defeat.

"We didn't make shots and they really shot the ball well," said Clippers head coach Kim Hughes after his team made 43 percent of its attempts.

The Clippers will also visit Charlotte and San Antonio on this trek and are 7-25 as the guest this season. They have lost 11 of their last 12 road games.

Los Angeles defeated Miami, 94-84, at home back on January 10 behind Kaman's team-high 22 points and 14 rebounds. The Clippers have won five of the last seven contests in this series.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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